UPDATE: His work here is done.
Moreyball: Daryl Morey’s basketball philosophy in practice, favouring 3-pointers and layups over midrange jumpers. Since the Rockets doubled down on the philosophy in about 2013, other teams have started to catch on and implement their own version of the system (at the expense of the Rockets). Strategy of NBA teams has shifted away from the midrange but which players have committed to the Moreyball philosophy the most?
We only want shots in the restricted area, or in 3-point range. Nothing in the exclusion zone.
We’ll be focusing on shots taken from two areas on the court: the restricted area and 3 point range. Combined, these two zones form Moreyball range. All the other shots fall into the exclusion zone, highlighted red. Adding the 3-point shooting rate to the shooting rate from the restricted area creates a fun new stat called Moreyball Rate. Here shooting rate is the number of shots taken from a given area as a proportion of total shots taken.
Who needs the midrange?
To boost their Moreyball rate players can either take their shots from very close in or from very far out. Most players fall higher on the 3-pointer side of spectrum - the ability to space the floor on offence has become an increasingly important factor in staying on the court. 3-point sharpshooters, in the far top left of corner of the graph, include guys like Kyle Korver, Duncan Robinson, and Wayne Ellington.
Some players instead took very few (or no) 3s. Normally, those players compensated by taking a comparatively high rate of shots from the restricted area, like Mitchell Robinson, Jaxon Hayes, and DeAndre Jordan, hanging out at the bottom right of the graph.
Those who took few 3s and few layups are in the bottom left. These players are the last bastion of the midrange, and include guys like DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldrige, and Khris Middleton.
Highlight Players
I want to highlight four players who exist on different parts of the spectrum.
Ben McLemore is the 2020 Moreyball MVP and Moreyball All-Star Starter. With a Moreyball rate over over 96%, Ben also averaged the second-highest proportion of shots from 3-point range after Duncan Robinson, another 2020 Moreyball All-Star. McLemore was found money for the Rockets this season, with a great comeback story from being waived by the Kings in 2019 all the way to filling the perfect role on the Rockets.
Rockets shooters like McLemore1 can take advantage of their “microball” spacing, and the amount of defensive attention focused on Harden (and Westbrook), especially as they drive. When McLemore screens for Harden or Westbrook, the superstar ball handler typically draws the defense’s attention allowing McLemore to pop for 3 or slip to rim for a layup. They also run a nice play with McLemore as the inbounder, cutting to the rim off a back screen set by Harden.
Duncan Robinson is a close runner-up for Moreyball MVP. Duncan is a sharpshooter through and through, and Miami use him differently in their offence than how McLemore is used on the Rockets. The Heat use the threat of the 3-point shot itself, as opposed to the threat of a superstar’s offence, to earn their cuts and layups.
Some of the actions are similar to the Warriors’ offence, using split cuts with Robinson together with Tyler Herro. Otherwise, Robinson is sprinting through dribble hand-offs or around screens for 3-pointers, or cutting backdoor when defenses over-commit to stopping the 3. Robinson also uses teammates in lieu of dribbling: taking dribble hand-offs, passing right back if the shot’s not there, then. It took until Game 4 of this Eastern Conference Finals series for him to take his first two-point shot (it was a layup).
Mitchell Robinson (no relation) is a prototypical lob catcher; essentially his only shots this season were dunks and layups. Robinson actually ranked 3rd in total dunks taken this season, behind only Rudy Gobert and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Restricted area shots accounted for over 92% of his shots - his other attempts were all taken from within 10 ft (probably still within layup range for a man with a 7’4” wingspan).
DeMar DeRozan ranked dead last in Moreyball rate this year, instead opting to take 70% of his shots between 4 and 22 feet from the hoop. He (and the Spurs) are hanging on to the midrange for dear life. In his last season in Toronto he was pushed to shoot more 3s. Since he joined the Spurs his 3-point rate has dropped down to only 4%, ahead of only guys like Ben Simmons and Mitchell Robinson (who took 0 3s this season).
Moreyball All-Stars
In the 2019-20 season, the league average Moreyball rate was 68.8%. Among the ~500 players who played more than 400 minutes this season2, only 10 had a Moreball rate above 90%. These 10 players are our Moreyball All-Stars for 2020. We’re not worried about efficiency or shooting percentage in this case - just the players who were most able to eliminate the midrange from their game.
Highlighted above, Ben McLemore is our 2020 Moreyball MVP with a Moreyball rate of over 96%. Miami sharpshooter Duncan Robinson is our second guard and a close second in Moreyball rate, followed by two 3 & D wings in Jae Crowder and Robert Covington. Mitchell Robinson rounds out the top 5 in the centre position.
Side note - it’s a weird coincidence that the top 5 Moreyball shot-takers, our starting five, fit into mostly traditional positions: G, G, F, F, C. Not a lot of shot creation, though (which makes sense). Moreyball All-Stars lean heavily towards wings, especially 3&D wings. Only one player who played most of his minutes at center made the cut (Mitchell Robinson), and only one point guard even made it into the top 503.
What’s next for the midrange?
We’ll likely continue to see the trend of players moving up and to the right on the graph above, working towards a Moreyball utopia where taking a midrange shot is a technical foul and free throws are taken from beyond the 3-point line. Come playoff time, too, the ability to create your own shot is key - the value of players like Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant and Jimmy Butler. As defenses continue to focus on taking away the 3 and the paint, there is still space to be found just inside the 3-point line.